FOREX EUR/USD EUR/USD trades above its session low but below its 20-day MA (1.16040), which is currently at the last price, suggesting a retest of this moving average as resistance. The pair is holding above its 50-day MA (1.15010) but below the 200-day MA (1.16330), indicating mixed longer-term trends. Key resistance is at the session high of 1.16040, while support is found at the session low of 1.15870, with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (1.14440) offering deeper support. Bias: Neutral. Invalidation above 1.16040 for upside, below 1.15870 for downside.
GBP/USD GBP/USD is trading lower, printing a red candle after yesterday's close, currently below its 20-day MA (1.35530). The pair finds support near its 50-day (1.34440) and 200-day (1.34410) MAs, suggesting a confluence of support levels below current price. Immediate resistance is the previous close at 1.35153, while the session low of 1.34810 acts as near-term support. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (1.34757) is close to the current price, indicating a potential bounce or break point. Bias: Bearish. Invalidation above 1.35153.
USD/JPY USD/JPY has seen a significant drop, down nearly 1.8% and breaking below both its 20-day (159.100) and 50-day (160.722) MAs, with the 200-day MA (158.450) now acting as key resistance. The ATR14 (0.907) is elevated, reflecting increased volatility. The pair is trading well below its previous close of 160.196, finding temporary support near the session low of 157.283. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (160.334) suggests that the current move is significant. Bias: Bearish. Invalidation above 158.450.
AUD/USD AUD/USD shows strength, up 0.25%, trading above its 20-day (0.71190), 50-day (0.70270), and 200-day (0.69770) MAs, indicating a clear uptrend. The pair is nearing the 60-day swing high of 0.72070, with the session high at 0.71750 serving as immediate resistance. Support is found at the session low of 0.71620, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (0.70823). The uptrend remains intact with a positive MA alignment. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 0.71620.
DXY The Dollar Index is softer this morning, down 0.19%, trading below its 20-day MA (99.434) and just above the session low of 99.366. It remains below its 50-day MA (100.288) but above its 200-day MA (99.170), indicating short-term weakness within a mixed longer-term structure. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (99.529) suggests current price is around a key inflection point. Bias: Neutral to Bearish. Invalidation above 99.434.
INDICES AND FUTURES Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) NQ futures are slightly lower, trading below their 20-day MA (29555.71) and 50-day MA (29365.92), but firmly above the 200-day MA (27118.54). The current price is near the session low of 29075.00, suggesting a bearish tilt in the short term. Key support is seen at the previous swing low of 27201.50, while resistance lies at the session high of 29255.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (29272.58). Bias: Bearish. Invalidation above 29255.00.
S&P 500 futures (ES) ES futures show minor weakness, trading just below yesterday's close and beneath its 20-day MA (7723.86) but above its 50-day (7614.90) and 200-day (7162.42) MAs. The session range is tight, indicating consolidation. Immediate resistance is the session high of 7684.50, with support at the session low of 7661.25. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (7543.68) provides a significant downside level. Bias: Neutral. Invalidation above 7684.50 for bullish, below 7661.25 for bearish.
Dow futures (YM) YM futures are slightly positive, breaking above yesterday's close and trading above its 50-day MA (53078.70) and 200-day MA (49963.27), but below its 20-day MA (53531.00). The current price is near the session high of 53190.00, suggesting a mild bullish bias. The previous close at 53121.00 acts as immediate support. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (53228.69) is just above current price, a key level to watch. Bias: Neutral to Bullish. Invalidation below 53093.00.
DAX DAX is trading lower, breaking below its previous close and its 20-day MA (26229.37), but holding above its 50-day MA (25647.64) and 200-day MA (24639.84). The index is near the session low of 25727.93, indicating short-term weakness. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (25547.45) is a critical support level. Bias: Bearish. Invalidation above 25924.21.
FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 is down, trading below its 20-day MA (10812.89) but above its 50-day MA (10706.16) and 200-day MA (10341.58). Price action is consolidating above the session low of 10713.09. The previous close of 10789.30 acts as resistance. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (10714.73) suggests strong support near current levels. Bias: Neutral to Bearish. Invalidation above 10789.30.
COMMODITIES Spot gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is strongly bid, up over 2.6%, trading above its 20-day MA (4462.17) and 50-day MA (4230.79). Price is nearing the 200-day MA (4518.60) as a key resistance level. The current price is near the session high of 4486.00, with strong momentum indicated by the move. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (4308.77) has been decisively broken, suggesting further upside. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 4426.70.
Spot silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is also showing significant strength, up over 2.5%, trading above its 20-day MA (66.271) and 50-day MA (61.829), but still well below its 200-day MA (71.823). The current price is near the session high of 66.790, with the previous close of 64.723 now acting as strong support. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (62.247) has been overcome, indicating bullish momentum. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 65.775.
Copper Copper is posting a solid gain, up 1.38%, trading above its 20-day MA (6.57120), 50-day MA (6.41220), and 200-day MA (5.97690), suggesting a strong uptrend. Price is nearing the 60-day swing high of 6.75000. The session low of 6.57300 is the first support level. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (6.44498) was broken earlier. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 6.57300.
WTI crude WTI crude is trading lower, down over 1%, breaking below its previous close of 91.010, but still firmly above its 20-day (84.709), 50-day (80.541), and 200-day (78.651) MAs. Price is currently near the session low of 89.850. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (87.279) provides a key support level should the current weakness extend. Bias: Neutral to Bearish. Invalidation above 91.460.
Brent crude Brent crude is also showing weakness, down over 1.2%, trading below its previous close of 95.630, but maintaining its position above its 20-day (90.462), 50-day (85.738), and 200-day (83.680) MAs. Price is close to the session low of 94.210. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (91.737) could serve as strong support. Bias: Neutral to Bearish. Invalidation above 95.900.
Natural gas Natural gas is posting gains, up 1.86%, trading above its 20-day MA (2.81340) and 50-day MA (2.89540), but still below its 200-day MA (3.31520). The current price is near the session high of 3.02600, showing strong short-term momentum. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (2.95540) has been clearly broken, suggesting further upside. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 2.99100.
RATES US 10-year Treasury yield The US 10-year Treasury yield is flat, holding steady at 4.79600, near its 60-day swing high of 4.80600. It is trading above its 20-day (4.69990), 50-day (4.61840), and 200-day (4.35320) MAs, indicating a robust uptrend. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day swing (4.68656) provides a strong support level. Further breaks above 4.80600 would signal new highs. Bias: Bullish. Invalidation below 4.79600.
LONDON OPEN WATCH: Expect focus on DXY's continued softness and its implications for FX pairs, particularly AUD/USD's strength. Watch equity futures for direction given the slight weakness in NQ/ES, and keep an eye on gold and silver momentum as they test key moving averages.