ok so an action packed week this week in markets , with big tech earning reports, fed decision , PCE price consumer expenditure data
earnings from mega cap heavy weight magnificent 7 company's include Microsoft MSFT meta platforms META amazon amzn apple aapl , Wednesday after the bell its microsoft analyst expect eps off $4.24 on revenue of $87.6 billion , meta the consensus expects revenue of $60.2 billion and eps earnings per share of $7.22 also arm holdings reports and Qaulcomm both big company's in the tech eco system, thursday after the closing bell we have amazon analysts projects eps of $1.82 on revenue of $197 billion , also apple and been tim cooks last earnings call as CEO estimates point to eps $1.89 and revenue off $109 billion .
its not very often we see these big tech heavyweights miss on there eps , it often more comes down to forward guidance , tailwinds and capex , capex has been a big thing recently in the narrative and has often spooked investors on earnings calls , i mean the market wants to see capex but when so large they want to see it justified in Roi , the demand for AI is defiantly there especially the new wave off agentic ai , the question is also in this new eco system off AI credits = tokens = the purchase off Nvidia hardware by big tech company's is it only going to be enterprise that fuel this eco system or the everyday consumer in the economy . also Chinese company's such as deep seek , ten cent , alibaba have thrown another spanner in the works with the second episode off deep seek day when deep seek launched v3 rival to western LLM chat bots , on January 2025 built and ran on a lot less NVIDIA GPUs down to there lack off supply from US hardware been nationalized for national security reasons, and at the time was been described as jevons paradox a well known economic theory . This time it was mooonshine ai with kimi k3 and the others Chinese tech companies catching up to the west in the age off agentic AI , just like example deep seek api pull is 10 times cheaper than US alternatives like open ai or Anthropic this boasts the same bang for your buck and set to be open source models , this could pose a threat to this whole AI eco system of credits tokens and hardware, i mean we all know what's like to run out of Claude credits right ? . so the AI space is really volatile really interesting and we all want to be exposed yet the question remains how exposed do you want to be .
fed decision so Wednesday is the next fed decision and markets are pricing in around a 70 % chance off a pause , as you know central banks can always come with a surprise , yet its a difficult position for new fed chair Kevin warsh as the fed was nearly back at there target off 2 % inflation after years off above target , even after president trumps tariffs , before the Iran war US CPI at 2.3% , jumping to 3.3% then 3.8% then over 4% witch really spooked markets , inflation has somewhat come down since then after oil prices came back to pre war levels , then fresh escalation in the middle east made oil spike again so we could see some big deviations in the data witch could cause surprises and cause kevin warsh and the feds job to be even more difficult . fed chair Kevin warsh has also been somewhat hawkish showing central bank independence despite pressure to cut interest rates from president Donald trump , as we know the independence off central banks is crucial to stability off economies and stability off the markets . we can guarantee one thing on Wednesday new fed chair will include the famous words of his predecessor Jerome Powell... " we are data dependent " estimate he said it in a round about way or another 150-200 times , that just tells us the importance off economic data to modern economies and civilizations .
PCE price consumer expenditure data on Thursday the 30th July 8;30am new York time and 13;30pm London the feds preferred gauge off inflation , im sure if this was released before the fed decision it could contribute to change the narrative and depending on the actual figure sway central bankers one way or the other , either way with big volatile swings in oil and commodities down to geopolitical flare ups in the middle east between the US and Iran and the straight of Hormuz still having its problems we could see PCE have a deviation and cause market volatility .