Is the next Bull Run round the corner?

Gold’s explosive August rally may have been far from the end of the wider bullish story, but September delivered a sharp reality check for XAUUSD. Renewed strength in the US dollar helped drive gold lower throughout the month, shifting short-term market structure decisively bearish and forcing price through several previously defended areas of support.

The 4-hour chart highlights a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows following the August peak near the 4,680 region. Since then, rallies have repeatedly struggled to sustain momentum, with former demand areas increasingly acting as resistance as sellers maintain control.

Most recently, XAUUSD broke below the 4,240–4,285 region and continued towards the 4,150–4,170 area. Price is currently attempting to stabilise around this zone, but the broader short-term structure remains bearish. A temporary consolidation or corrective move higher would therefore not necessarily signal the beginning of a new bull run.

Instead, further downside could bring the 4,030–4,145 demand region into focus. Within this area, approximately 4,062 stands out as a particularly interesting level. The zone sits beneath recent lows, where sell-side liquidity and protective stops may have accumulated. A move into this region could therefore provide the market with the liquidity required before a more substantial directional reversal develops.

The marked projection illustrates one possible scenario: price continues lower into the 4,062 region, trades through nearby liquidity and initially produces volatile consolidation before attempting to recover. Such a move would fit the existing bearish structure while potentially creating more favourable conditions for buyers later.

However, simply reaching 4,062 would not automatically confirm a bullish reversal. Traders would still need evidence that sellers are losing control. A strong rejection, higher displacement, a recovery of broken resistance, and the formation of higher lows would provide much stronger confirmation than trying to anticipate the exact bottom.

The bigger picture therefore presents an interesting contradiction. September has clearly favoured sellers, and additional downside remains technically plausible. Yet that bearish movement could ultimately be what prepares the ground for gold’s next major expansion.

The question is no longer whether August was bullish.

It is whether the current sell-off is ending the bull market — or engineering the liquidity for the next one.