This week's trade in global financial markets, as far as the world's biggest high-impact news catalysts, kicks off this evening after the US market close. We have mega-cap tech corporate earnings from none other than the legacy technology company Apple, ticker name AAPL.
Things were all roses and rainbows for Apple recently when John Ternus became CEO after the Tim Cook era. Ternus came in with a promise of a product focus like the late great CEO Steve Jobs, and Apple did just that with their newest product release, the long-awaited foldable iPhone.
This continued until there were issues with the screen and some had to be recalled, which is not great for Apple. But we will see how the earnings report turns out, especially forward guidance.
Apple is very much tied to the overall tech sector but not as directly tied to the AI trade as the rest of the big tech companies, with them having less AI exposure. This is as we know initially in the days of the Google Gemini hype and where it looked like every big mega-cap tech company was developing their own internal AI and Apple was still behind with Siri.
Apple stock got beat up for not having a LLM (Large Language Model), but over time that has also given it its own value by being a pure hardware-software company without an internal LLM. So that is something to possibly bear in mind when thinking about Apple's earnings pull on the NASDAQ stock index.
Therefore, or respectively, or even more importantly, on a global corporate outlook, how much it will move the S&P 500 stock index (the US & global benchmark stock index).
Apple Forecasts Growth Amid Supply Constraints
Apple Q4 2026 Earnings Preview: Wall Street Anticipates Double-Digit Growth Amid Supply Constraints. Apple is set to release its fiscal fourth-quarter 2026 financial results, with analysts forecasting a solid year-over-year expansion driven by steady hardware demand and growth in its services division.
Key Expectations: Headline Metrics project revenue to climb approximately 10.7% year-over-year to $113.4 billion, with diluted earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise about 7.4% to $1.99. iPhone revenue is projected to post mid-teens percentage growth (reaching roughly $56.5 billion), supported by strong early cycle demand for new device lineups.
Meanwhile, Services revenue is anticipated to maintain steady momentum. Gross profit margins are expected to hover around 47.5%. Investors will closely monitor management commentary regarding component costs, foreign exchange headwinds, and whether supply chain constraints are impacting the fulfillment of high consumer demand.
Labor Market Data Trilogy Looms
Then tomorrow the story continues with JOLTS data coming out of the US as a leading indicator for this week's labor market heavyweight, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). If we see a big deviation from consensus, we could see it affect currencies and the macro trend.
The U.S. JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) report for September is scheduled for release tomorrow, Tuesday, November 3, at 10:00 AM EST (3:00 PM London time). Economists are forecasting job openings to come in around 7.13 million, slightly up from August's print of 7.079 million.
Markets will focus on whether vacancies stabilize or continue their downward trend, alongside the quits rate, which serves as a key indicator of worker confidence and wage pressure. A softer print strengthens the case for Federal Reserve rate cuts, while a surprise jump could reignite inflation and bond market jitters.
On Wednesday we continue into this week's trade with ADP employment change, the second in this week's US labor market data trilogy. Key labor market data gives the world a look at the health of the world's largest economy and an outlook into the decisions of the US central bank on the dollar, the world's reserve currency.
The U.S. ADP National Employment Report for October is scheduled for release this Wednesday, November 4, at 8:15 AM EST (1:15 PM GMT). Economists project private-sector payroll growth of around 68,000 to 90,000 jobs for October, reflecting moderate hiring after September's 90,000 increase.
Coming ahead of Friday's official Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, a softer print will reinforce labor market cooling expectations and strengthen Fed bets. However, a surprise beat could spark short-term dollar strength and equity volatility.
Thursday we have the BOE Bank of England make a decision on the pound where it is around a 96% chance that they will hike 25 basis points (0.25%) from 3.75% to 4%. That could put a strain on small-cap UK stocks and on the UK economy in general, where we could see business slowing down with hiring. It will certainly put a strain on mortgages and homeowners who are particularly leveraged.
NFP Report Guides Federal Reserve Policy
Then come Friday, it brings us the biggest trading event in this week's global financial markets trade: US labor market data NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls). News traders will be awaiting it; even many technical analysts who trade the chart will be staying out of the market the day before with such a macroeconomic high-impact news catalyst. When the inexperienced play around with them, they get hurt and even liquidated.
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for October will be released this Friday, November 6, at 8:30 AM EST (1:30 PM GMT). Markets expect non-farm payroll additions of 60,000 to 65,000 jobs, marking a slight rebound from September’s sharply lower 29,000 print.
The unemployment rate is projected to hold steady around 4.2%. Traders are watching for potential revisions to prior months, wage growth trends, and signs of labor market stabilization. A weak reading will reinforce Fed rate cut bets heading into the December FOMC meeting, while a hot print could spark dollar buying and pressure equities.
I'm sure Kevin Warsh, the Fed chairman, will be interested in seeing the labor market data this week, how he says he's not looking at a single data print but at the totality of the data. Also, when he said... "Market participants will always try to anticipate what we will do next. But we should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade."
It's ok, Kevin, saying that he's not going to give guidance, which will then make things harder for traders. But will a possible after-effect of him not giving guidance be that it will make the economic data releases even more volatile?
If so, news traders will capitalize on this, especially currency traders at institutional desks, but that volume could also have wider implications in the real-world utility of financial markets that is away from the speculation.
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