Week Ahead Preview: US CPI/PPI Inflation Catalysts, Fed Rate Path Expectations, and Q3 Earnings Season Focus is on US inflation data this week, with CPI (Consumer Price Index) & PPI (Producer Price Index) reports releasing on Wednesday, October 14 at 13:30 BST (8:30 AM ET). With it being the last bit of economic data until the next FOMC rate decision, and with commodity prices so high alongside a geopolitical narrative of a war in the Middle East and a war in Europe that just does not seem to be coming to an end anytime soon, the pressure is on the US central bank.US Consumer Price Index (September)Event: US Consumer Price Index (September)Date & Time: Wednesday, October 14, 2026 at 13:30 BST (8:30 AM ET)Baseline Forecasts (Consensus)Headline CPI (MoM): +0.5% to +0.6% (Previous: +0.4%)Headline CPI (YoY): 3.6% to 3.7% (Previous: 3.4%)Core CPI (MoM): +0.2% (Previous: +0.3%)Core CPI (YoY): 2.4% to 2.5% (Previous: 2.4%)Potential DeviationsUpside Deviation (Hotter Core): Core MoM: $\ge$ +0.3% | Core YoY: $\ge$ 2.6% | Headline YoY: $\ge$ 3.8%Downside Deviation (Softer Core): Core MoM: $\le$ +0.1% | Core YoY: $\le$ 2.3% | Headline YoY: $\le$ 3.5%Split Deviation (Energy Spike / Core Slowdown): Headline MoM: $\ge$ +0.6% | Core MoM: $\le$ +0.2%US Producer Price Index (September)US Producer Price Index (PPI) will also be a massive tell of how inflation is at the industrial level before the next Fed decision.Event: US Producer Price Index (September)Date & Time: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 13:30 BST (8:30 AM ET)Baseline Forecasts (Consensus)Headline PPI (MoM): +0.5% (Previous: +0.4%)Headline PPI (YoY): 5.3% (Previous: 5.4%)Core PPI (MoM - Ex Food & Energy): +0.2% to +0.3% (Previous: +0.3%)Core PPI (YoY): 4.6% to 4.7% (Previous: 4.7%)Potential DeviationsUpside Deviation (Hotter Pipeline Inflation): Headline MoM: $\ge$ +0.6% | Core MoM: $\ge$ +0.4% | Headline YoY: $\ge$ 5.5%Downside Deviation (Softer Producer Costs): Headline MoM: $\le$ +0.3% | Core MoM: $\le$ +0.1% | Headline YoY: $\le$ 5.1%Split Deviation (Energy-Driven Wholesale Spike): Headline MoM: $\ge$ +0.6% | Core MoM: $\le$ +0.2%MACRO RE-PRICING DYNAMICSWith traders and investors awaiting the next catalyst to move markets and bring volume, could CPI be it this week?If we get a massive upside surprise in inflation, we could get the markets re-pricing the amount of interest rate hikes left this year. The markets could possibly wait for after PPI to then trend, as next week is a quiet week for US market events, so people could look to position themselves.SINGLE-STOCK & EARNINGS CATALYSTSOn the micro single-stock story this week, we have big Wall Street bank earnings in the US starting Tuesday with Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.Wednesday, there is Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Bank of America. Wednesday also has a quarterly earnings report from ASML, which should be interesting to see the health of the tech sector.Also, Domino's Pizza reports this week (ticker name DPZ), with Domino's shares currently up around 5% at the time of writing.

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