Bitcoin runs on a 4-year market cycle. It goes up for around 2 years, then down for around 2 years, give or take a few months.
Recently, 2017 had its top just before New Year, around $20,000. Then it dropped to close to $3,000 in early 2020. This was a similar time to when silver dropped to $11 USD on paper, but no one was selling 1oz coins lower than £25 in the UK in any of the places I bought from face to face in early 2020.
Shortly after that, there was a massive run up. The next top was October 2021, around $69,000, and silver ran up quickly to £25, then bounced around $25–£28 on paper and in shops and stayed there until late August 2024. Then silver broke out and made a big run up to above $112, topping out in January 2026, then gradually correcting back down to around just above $50 on paper and between £50–£60 to buy physical coins in the UK currently, August 2026.
After the 2021 top, Bitcoin dropped lower than its previous all-time high $20,000 for the first time in its history. It hit close to $15,000 before it went on its most recent run up to its latest top, which was September 2025, around $115,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading below the previous all-time high just above $63,000, so if it follows the same pattern, there is a high probability that now is the best time to dollar-cost average in or a good time to invest aggressively.
There could be a black swan event like 2020. It makes sense it could be because of the oil crisis explained in my previous article.
I'm buying Bitcoin now. If some geopolitical mayhem drops the price of everything, I'll be buying more Bitcoin, Monero. Then physical silver and silver on leverage when it hits the bottom and the paper price is way below the physical price and the mayhem is settling down and the price is starting to go back up.
This is not financial advice because the British/American/European etc governments make it illegal to offer financial advice that doesn't push the assets they want pushing. It is just information about what happened in the past and what I think is about to happen soon, maybe after a black swan bigger than 2020.
The next top should be some time in 2029; that's when I'm dollar cost averaging out (selling bit by bit).