As expected the Fed US central bank kept rates unchanged with little forward guidance at the FOMC press conference. In Kevin Warsh's speech he was very vague, even using terms like "market participants are learning to play the ball, not the referee." He stressed how inflation has been above target for 63 months now and mentioned one good CPI (Consumer Price Index) data print is not enough and he wants to see trends. Warsh stressed 2% is the target but did not speak much about action. Stressed by Bloomberg's Mike McKee, the famous macro reporter, who said to him "all you have done is talk, how is that different from the last Fed?", stressing lack of action. Warsh mentioned tariffs, geopolitics, and even tech/AI hardware inflation and referenced capex (capital expenditure). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hinted that he does not need to give forward guidance as markets are doing his job for him. Reaction in markets was quite the sell-off in the US stock market, and interestingly at the same time a dollar sell-off. Maybe this is as markets gave him and the US central bank a lack of credibility? Either way, whether he gives forward guidance or not, the economic data does not lie and paints a clear picture.

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