This morning in European markets, ASML and tech generally are dragging things down after Amazon and Intel earnings last night came in as a disappointment. Amazon is off the worst; it is only down now around 7% in the pre-market, yet shares of Intel are trading down 25% in pre-market trading.
It is a good day for energy companies, with chevron up around 1.90% at the time off writing and BP shares up around 0.40% as Brent crude oil has traded as high as $118 this morning, well surpassing its post-Iran war high of around $113. Unfortunately, it is not just a spike in inflated oil prices; it is holding daily candles on the chart. As we know, with such high oil prices, we will see higher numbers on the inflation data prints. Remember, these are not just numbers on a CPI print that is on a screen and moves the markets; this will be real people in the real economy suffering.
With a combination of the spook in the tech sector from the earning reports along with higher energy prices this morning on the macro-economic outlook, both macro and micro are pointing towards a risk-off sell-off. However, a short or a sell is not guaranteed, as this is global financial markets and anything can happen at any time.
London trading opened with aggressive tech sector liquidation that spilled directly into precious metals and digital assets. A pull-back in US 10-year Treasury yields beneath 5.00% to 4.989% has failed to anchor risk sentiment, as equities decouple from falling yields while providing temporary support to broad major currencies. The softer US Dollar Index at 101.675 offers a selective lifeline to Sterling and the Euro, even as commodity markets face systemic pressure.
Forex: Dollar Softness Boosts Sterling and Euro
Cable cleared its 50-day moving average at 1.33880 during early trading, pushing GBP/USD right up toward its 200-day moving average at 1.34310 with a 0.76% gain on the morning. A decisive daily close above 1.34310 confirms a bullish shift toward the upper 60-day boundary at 1.36750, whereas slipping back under 1.33750 invalidates current upside momentum. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index slid 0.36% to 101.675, breaking beneath its 20-day moving average at 102.042 and providing the fundamental backdrop for currency upside.
Reclaiming ground above its session low of 1.11790, EUR/USD advanced 0.41% to 1.12010 to test its 20-day moving average at 1.12060. The 60-day floor at 1.11095 marks critical multi-month support, and buyers keep control while price remains above 1.11790, targeting the 50-day moving average at 1.14010. USD/JPY slipped 0.37% to 157.249, undercutting its 20-day moving average at 157.896 as lower Treasury yields sap yield differential support. Holding above the 50-day moving average at 157.438 remains key for yen bears, with failure opening a drift toward 152.897. AUD/USD bucked the anti-dollar trend with a 0.35% drop to 0.70330 due to broader risk aversion and soft industrial metals, remaining trapped between its 20-day moving average at 0.69910 and 200-day moving average at 0.70570.
Equity Futures: Tech Liquidation Drags Nasdaq and S&P 500
Severe selling pushed Nasdaq 100 futures down 2.27% to 28,890.25, probing intraday lows of 28,821.50 and approaching the critical 60-day swing low of 28,763.75. Sitting well below its 20-day moving average at 30,151.74 and 50-day moving average at 29,955.44, the index now relies on its 200-day moving average at 28,058.84 as macro trend defense; a close below 28,760 opens the path directly to that 200-day level.
S&P 500 futures sliced below their 20-day moving average at 7,777.52 to post a 0.99% decline to 7,677.75, reaching a session trough at 7,665.25. Bulls must reclaim the 50-day moving average at 7,732.15 to prevent a deeper retracement toward the 60-day swing low of 7,509.25. Dow futures outperformed dramatically, gaining 0.07% to 52,550.00 while trading within a range of 52,335.00 to 52,662.00, held aloft above both the 20-day moving average at 52,254.90 and 50-day moving average at 52,405.88. In European cash trading, the DAX surrendered early gains to drop 0.35% to 25,948.20, though it sits comfortably above its 20-day moving average at 25,402.98. The FTSE 100 added 0.11% to 10,733.88, anchored above its 20-day moving average at 10,675.79.
Commodities: Precious Metals Collapse as WTI Outperforms
Silver suffered a sharp structural breakdown during morning trade, falling 2.60% to 50.835 and touching a fresh 60-day swing low at 50.480. Prices sit heavily depressed far below the 20-day moving average at 56.791 and 50-day moving average at 61.763; failure to reclaim the previous session close at 52.191 leaves systemic downside open toward the 52-week low at 46.805.
Spot gold breached the 4,000 psychological threshold with a 0.79% decline to 3,999.60 after hitting a fresh 60-day low at 3,974.70. With price well beneath the 20-day moving average at 4,120.07, sellers hold sway unless buyers push price back over the session high at 4,038.20. In energy, WTI crude diverged upward with a 1.87% gain to 103.910, maintaining structural support above its 20-day moving average at 97.427 and 50-day moving average at 94.626. Conversely, Brent crude dropped 1.63% to 113.010, though staying above its 20-day moving average at 108.712. Copper fell 0.80% to 6.52850, losing its 20-day moving average at 6.56680 to mirror growth worries in tech futures. Natural gas declined 1.42% to 2.91000, staying locked beneath its 20-day moving average at 2.99980.
Fixed Income: Benchmark US Yields Slip Beneath 5%
The US 10-year Treasury yield softened 1.11% to 4.989%, pulling back beneath its 50-day moving average of 5.0082% and extending distance below its 20-day moving average of 5.1398%. While lower rates typically relieve equity valuation pressure, today's drop highlights safety-seeking bond inflows amid tech equity liquidation. Duration buyers remain entrenched while yields stay below 5.045%, keeping the focus on support around the 4.603% 60-day low.
Crypto: Bitcoin and Ether Breakdown Mirrors Tech Weakness
High correlation with tech equities triggered a sharp decline in Bitcoin, which fell 3.32% to 77,553.77 according to CoinPaprika data. Slipping from its previous close of 80,216.97, BTC established its session low at 77,553.77 alongside a 24-hour volume of $40.24bn and a market cap of $1,559.27bn. Surrendering psychological support at 80,000 leaves Bitcoin vulnerable, and buyers must hold 77,000 to prevent a broader drop toward lower liquidity pockets.
Ether experienced steep distribution as well, declining 4.23% to 2,227.18 on CoinPaprika feeds. Trading at its intraday low of 2,227.18 with 24-hour turnover at $18.31bn and market cap at $272.10bn, ETH faces persistent downside pressure while below 2,300. Solana mirrored the trend with a 3.74% drop to 96.826, recording $4.47bn in volume and a $57.13bn market cap. Reclaiming 100.587 is necessary to neutralize the immediate bearish momentum.
Into the US Crossover
As London traders hand off to Wall Street, all focus centres on whether Nasdaq futures can hold the critical 28,763.75 swing low or if tech selling deepens across the Atlantic. Simultaneously, precious metals bulls need spot gold to reclaim 4,038.20 and silver to hold above 50.480 to prevent further systemic unwinds. Should the US Dollar Index break below session support at 101.565, Cable's push toward 1.34310 could extend into a broader foreign exchange breakout.
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