Friday trading after the hype off CPI and PPI, it could be a quite muted trading day in markets or it could even surprise at the US cash open and even see the dip buyers come in. This morning, ASML is seeing some buyers come in at a slight discount after the recent sell-off.
A sharp 10-basis-point drop in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 5.0890 percent is softening the US Dollar Index, sending clear ripple effects across global asset classes ahead of the London open. Lower yields are breathing fresh life into spot metals and European equity futures while allowing sterling and the euro to stage relief rallies off recent swing lows. Conversely, energy markets are breaking down sharply, with crude oil suffering steep liquidation despite the broader risk-stabilizing backdrop.
Forex: Dollar Retreats as Sterling and Euro Stage Relief Rallies
The US Dollar Index has dropped 0.28 percent to 101.712, testing its 20-day moving average at 101.703 after pulling back from a session peak of 102.086. A daily close below this 20-day dynamic pivot threatens a deeper retracement toward the 50-day moving average at 100.344, driven primarily by the retreat in Treasury yields.
Sterling leads major currency gainers, advancing 0.79 percent to 1.33340 and slicing back above its 20-day moving average at 1.32590. The pair touched a session high of 1.33390, building momentum off its 60-day swing low of 1.31385. Technical resistance sits near 1.34240, where the 50-day moving average coincides with previous breakdown structure. Bullish control remains intact while 1.32690, today's session low, holds on any intraday pullback.
Euro buyers have pushed price up 0.54 percent to 1.12560, bouncing cleanly off an intraday low of 1.12120. While the exchange rate remains beneath its descending 20-day moving average of 1.12990 and 50-day moving average of 1.14780, short-term momentum favors a retest of the 1.1300 handle. Invalidation for immediate dip-buyers lies at 1.12120.
Dollar-yen is effectively flat at 157.931 (-0.02 percent), hovering right between its 20-day moving average at 157.886 and 50-day moving average at 157.707 within a narrow session range of 157.788 to 158.186. The broader structural uptrend off the 60-day swing low of 152.897 remains well-defended unless sellers push a close below 157.700.
Bucking the anti-dollar trend, the Aussie dollar dips 0.22 percent to 0.69630, burdened by weakness in energy commodities despite underlying strength in industrial metals. Price sits beneath its 20-day moving average of 0.69990, with key support anchored at the session low of 0.69190 and the 60-day swing low of 0.68954.
Equity Futures: DAX Outperforms as S&P 500 Reclaims 20-Day Average
Germany's DAX leads European market sentiment, jumping 0.97 percent to 25629.16 and breaking cleanly above its 20-day moving average at 25296.65. The index printed a session high of 25653.31, capitalizing on falling sovereign yields and lower crude oil input costs for industrial exporters. Overhead resistance now looms at the 50-day moving average near 25720.65, while immediate support rests at the session low of 25466.09.
S&P 500 futures have edged 0.22 percent higher to 7808.00, quietly reclaiming the 20-day moving average at 7800.80 after finding solid structural support at a session low of 7774.75. A sustained hold above 7800 shifts tactical focus back toward the 60-day swing high at 7897.50, whereas a slip below 7774 opens a retest of the 50-day moving average at 7738.90. Dow futures are up 0.34 percent to 52609.00, mounting a direct challenge on the descending 50-day moving average at 52628.28 after bouncing off 52380.00. The rising 20-day moving average at 51861.30 provides firm underlying trend support on macro pullbacks.
Tech-heavy Nasdaq futures lag slightly with a modest 0.09 percent gain to 30172.25, coiling between support at the 50-day moving average of 30021.68 and overhead resistance at the 20-day moving average of 30820.22. A daily close beneath 29959.25, the session low, risks exposing lower structural supports toward the 200-day moving average at 27872.02. The FTSE 100 dips 0.13 percent to 10826.32 as falling energy heavyweights drag down the UK index despite supportive broad equity sentiment. Price stays comfortably above its 20-day moving average of 10626.79, maintaining a bullish posture above the session low of 10796.71.
Commodities and Rates: Crude Plunges while Silver and Gold Rally on Softening Yields
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield has plunged 1.95 percent to 5.0890 percent, pulling back from its previous close of 5.1900 percent and falling below its 20-day moving average of 5.1879 percent. This rapid yield compression is providing significant structural tailwinds for non-yielding precious metals while sapping fundamental momentum from energy markets.
Energy markets are undergoing aggressive liquidation, with Brent crude tumbling 3.29 percent to 102.440 and WTI crude dropping 2.70 percent to 95.320. Brent has sliced straight through its 20-day moving average of 103.320 after printing a session range between 104.920 and 105.900, bringing the 50-day moving average at 98.267 into technical view. WTI is holding just above its session low of 95.290, with its 20-day moving average at 92.634 serving as the next major demand zone; sellers remain firmly in control while WTI trades below 96.390.
Spot silver outperforms across the precious metals complex, advancing 2.01 percent to 57.980 after rebounding sharply from a session low of 57.225. Although still trailing its 20-day moving average at 60.893, momentum oscillators signal a tactical oversold bounce off the 60-day swing low of 55.500. Spot gold has gained 0.82 percent to 4204.40, reclaiming ground from a session low of 4167.50 to test overhead resistance at its 20-day moving average of 4215.27. A breakout above this barrier targets the 50-day moving average at 4374.88, while key intraday support rests at 4167.50.
Copper advances 1.79 percent to 6.62800, pushing back above its 20-day moving average of 6.61230 as risk appetite stabilizes. Buyers target a retest of the 60-day swing high at 6.83000 as long as 6.54650 holds on a daily closing basis. Natural gas drifts 1.58 percent lower to 3.18500, remaining contained inside its session range of 3.17500 to 3.22900 but keeping price above both its 20-day moving average at 3.10980 and 200-day moving average at 3.10160.
Crypto: Ethereum and Solana Lead Rebound from Oversold Territory
Altcoins are outperforming top-cap crypto assets as momentum indicators reset from deeply oversold levels, buoyed by the broader stabilization in global risk assets. Ethereum has rallied 3.36 percent to 2450.03 after bouncing off its session low of 2324.97, moving upward despite a depressed 14-day RSI reading of 32.6 and trailing its 20-day moving average at 2588.99. Solana gains 3.48 percent to 106.53, lifting off its session low of 100.99 as its 14-day RSI rebounds from extreme oversold territory at 29.4 toward its 50-day moving average at 109.45.
Bitcoin trades up 1.01 percent to 82074.00, recovering from an intraday low of 79806.00 and remaining anchored between its 50-day moving average at 81295.74 and 20-day moving average at 83641.83. With a 14-day RSI of 41.7 and an average true range of 2019.14, Bitcoin's market capitalization stands at $1.65 trillion, maintaining dominant status within a $2.78 trillion total cryptocurrency market cap. Bitcoin dominance is recorded at 59.22 percent, according to aggregated exchange pricing from CoinGecko and Binance klines. A daily close above 83641.83 would signal a trend continuation toward the 60-day swing high of 87395.67.
As European trading floors opened, cross-asset attention centers on whether the pullback in US yields can keep the US Dollar Index below 101.703 and sustain momentum in metals and European equity indices. Traders should monitor Brent crude around its 103.320 moving average pivot for signs of energy stabilization, as well as S&P 500 futures around 7800.80. A renewed firming in yields into US pre-market trading would likely cap sterling at 1.33390 and re-energize dollar bulls across major currency pairs.
