Nasdaq 100 Futures Test 30,693 Support as Tech Sentiment Softens Ahead of US CPI
Nasdaq 100 futures test 30,693 support as tech sentiment softens, as European stocks this morning look like a safe haven of a less technology-exposed economy. LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton is having some issues in China, with LV shares trading down around 7% at the time of writing, so it could be a difficult day for the other luxury goods companies in the CAC 40. ASML, the famous lithography tech company, is down in Europe this morning. Today is the last day's trade before the reality of the hard economic data hits, with focus on US inflation data CPI (Consumer Price Index) tomorrow.
Forex and Currency Flows
EUR/USD
The pair faces significant pressure near the 1.11820 level, currently hovering just above the 60-day swing low of 1.11570. The 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages (1.13590, 1.15030, and 1.15960) remain in a bearish alignment, indicating long-term downside momentum. With an ATR of 0.00580, the range is constrained, and a breach below 1.11570 would signal a test of the 52-week lower boundary.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on sustained break above 1.13590. GBP/USD
Trading at 1.32260, the cable remains trapped in a consolidation phase between its recent range of 1.32050 and 1.32290. The proximity of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages (1.34400 and 1.34390) suggests a major technical convergence point that currently acts as overhead resistance. Momentum is stalled, and the 60-day swing low of 1.31822 remains the primary defense for the bulls.
Bias: Neutral; invalidation on a clear break of the 1.31822–1.34400 range. USD/JPY
The pair holds at 158.255, clinging to its position above the 200-day moving average of 158.536 despite recent volatility. The session range of 158.184–158.645 demonstrates a lack of conviction, though the pair remains well above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The 60-day swing high of 163.979 remains the ultimate objective for the bullish trend.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on breach of 157.342. AUD/USD
Trading at 0.69670, the Aussie shows signs of resilience, pushing slightly higher within the daily range. Despite this, the price remains anchored below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, which cluster between 0.70270 and 0.70880. A move above these averages is required to negate the prevailing downtrend.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on daily close above 0.70880. DXY
The Dollar Index trades at 102.392, retreating slightly from the 60-day swing high of 102.610. Despite this dip, the index remains significantly above its 20, 50, and 200-day moving averages (101.438, 100.214, and 99.413), affirming a robust bullish posture. The current volatility, indicated by an ATR of 0.478, suggests continued consolidation within the session highs.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on close below 99.413.
Equity Indices and Futures
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Futures are under pressure at 30,693.75, testing the 20-day moving average of 30,691.60. A failure to hold this level exposes the downside toward the 50-day moving average at 29,989.08. With an ATR of 433.29, intraday fluctuations remain elevated, though the long-term trend remains supported by the 200-day moving average at 27,805.43.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on breakout above 30,906.00. S&P 500 (ES)
S&P 500 futures trade at 7,848.25, maintaining a position well above the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at 7,774.65 and 7,736.36. The 60-day swing high of 7,897.50 remains the critical ceiling for the bulls. Market structure remains intact as long as support holds at the 7,736.36 level.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on breach of 7,736.36. Dow (YM)
The Dow shows relative strength at 52,242.00, trading above the 20-day moving average of 51,785.55. Resistance is building near the 50-day moving average of 52,751.98. The recent session high of 52,279.00 serves as a short-term hurdle for the index.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on drop below 51,785.55. DAX
The DAX trades at 25,277.68, precisely challenging the 20-day moving average of 25,316.18. A decisive breakout above this level would signal a shift in momentum toward the 50-day moving average at 25,785.01. The support zone at 24,862.54 continues to anchor the medium-term trend.
Bias: Neutral; breakout above 25,316.18 needed for bullish continuation. FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 rallies to 10,656.28, having cleared the 20-day moving average of 10,615.78. The index is now testing the 50-day moving average at 10,724.68, which acts as the next major barrier. Support remains firm at the 200-day moving average of 10,475.80.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on close back below 10,475.80.
Commodities and Energy
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Gold is back in favor at 4,215.90, gaining 0.60% and trading comfortably within the session range. The price is currently fighting to reclaim the 20-day moving average at 4,253.69, which is the immediate resistance level. A sustained breakout above 4,253.69 would set the stage for a push toward the 50-day moving average of 4,381.15.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on breach of 4,173.70. Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver trades at 60.815, showing a gain of 1.12% and reaching for the top of the session range. Despite the strength, the metal remains below the 20-day moving average of 62.273, which represents the primary resistance level. The 60-day swing low of 56.335 acts as a key support floor.
Bias: Neutral; bullish if 62.273 is reclaimed. Copper
Copper continues to push higher to 6.76500, clearing the 20-day and 50-day moving averages of 6.61070 and 6.58820. The commodity is nearing its 60-day swing high of 6.83000, which serves as a major psychological magnet. With momentum shifting, the trend remains firmly to the upside.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on reversal below 6.58820. WTI Crude
WTI struggles at 92.760, trading below the 20-day moving average of 93.378. The failure to hold this support suggests further weakness toward the 50-day moving average of 89.631. Volatility remains high with an ATR of 3.984.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on sustained break above 93.490. Brent Crude
Brent crude slides to 105.750, retreating from the session high of 106.270. Support is located at the 20-day moving average of 103.329. If this level fails, the index may test the 50-day moving average at 96.805.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on breach above 106.270. Natural Gas
Natural gas trades at 3.17400, holding above the 20-day and 200-day moving averages (3.05860 and 3.11810). The trend is constructive, with the 50-day moving average at 2.91090 providing a robust secondary support level.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on close below 3.11810.
Rates and Treasury Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year yield sits at 5.24000, slightly lower on the session. The yield remains well above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages (5.16060, 4.90420, and 4.48370), suggesting a persistent hawkish environment. The 60-day swing high of 5.36400 remains the peak resistance.
Bias: Bullish; invalidation on drop below 4.90420.
Crypto and Digital Assets
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
Bitcoin sits at 83,597.70, reflecting a minor contraction. The lack of moving average context necessitates reliance on the 24-hour range; a drop below the 81,032.80 support would trigger further liquidations. Resistance remains capped at the session high of 84,361.60.
Bias: Neutral; invalidation on break of 81,032.80–84,361.60 range. Ethereum (ETH/USDT)
Ethereum trades at 2,530.31, underperforming within its 24-hour range. The price is currently drifting toward the session low of 2,409.11. A recovery is required above 2,579.98 to shift the near-term momentum.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on close above 2,579.98. Solana (SOL/USDT)
Solana shows significant weakness at 108.31, a 4.01% drop. The price is approaching the 101.63 session low, which is a critical support level. A breakdown here could initiate a deeper correction.
Bias: Bearish; invalidation on move above 113.12.
Technical Cross-Asset Summary
Focus on the NQ's reaction to the 30,691 support level and whether gold can clear the 4,253 hurdle during the morning surge. Monitor the EUR/USD 1.11570 floor, as a breach there will likely catalyze increased volatility across the USD complex.
