CPI Volatility Awaits as ASML Supply Bottlenecks Highlight AI Demand Imbalance Ahead of Inflation Data
Today is the event the market has been waiting on: US inflation data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—the single biggest economic event in finance and corporate business, and a potential big volatile market mover. They don't call them high-impact news catalysts for nothing. This macroeconomic data print is crucial for the markets to price in the future stance of the Federal Reserve on interest rates.
ASML, the European tech giant, reported its company quarterly earnings report and says demand outweighs what they can supply—which is great for the health of the tech and AI trade because the demand for the product is there. However, if they can't meet demand, then NVIDIA and the rest of its customers won't be able to get their hardware built. Another thing to consider in economics: with this supply not meeting demand, does that imbalance cause more demand for commodities and cause its own inflation factor into the world's economy from the buildout of the industry? NVIDIA shares are currently down in pre-market trading.
ASML Q3 Earnings and Guidance Brief
Q3 Results: Net sales reached €11.7 billion with a 57.5% gross margin (beating guidance) and net income of €5.0 billion. Outperformance was driven by strong Installed Base service and upgrade sales (€3.3 billion).
Forward Outlook: Q4 revenue guided to €14.2B–€15.2B. Full-year 2026 revenue raised to €44B–€45B with gross margin around 56%.
Key Call Highlights: CEO Christophe Fouquet stated planned capacity increases through 2028 will not meet soaring AI-driven customer demand, prompting plans for further output expansion. Value-based pricing benefits are set to kick in starting in 2027.
Forex and Currency Flows
EUR/USD
The pair is currently trading at 1.12100, representing a 0.45 percent gain for the session while remaining locked in a broader bearish structural alignment. The technical posture is defined by a consistent series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily timeframe, with the price currently pinned below its major moving average stack. The 20-day moving average at 1.13240 and the 50-day moving average at 1.14900 both slope downward, reinforcing the prevailing sell-on-rally sentiment. Immediate resistance is identified at the session high of 1.12150, followed by the psychological barrier of 1.13000, which aligns closely with the 20-day moving average. On the downside, the 60-day swing low of 1.11549 serves as critical structural support; a breach here would likely accelerate momentum toward the 52-week low of 1.11550, creating a potential double-bottom scenario or a significant breakdown. The ATR of 0.00580 suggests moderate volatility, with the daily pivot point calculated at 1.11910, currently acting as a floor for the European morning.
Bias: Bearish below 1.13240. GBP/USD
Cable has edged higher to 1.32710, marginally reclaiming its 20-day moving average of 1.32690. This move represents a potential market structure shift if the pair can consolidate above this level during the London open. However, the medium-term outlook remains challenged by a bearish crossover where the 50-day moving average at 1.34320 sits just below the 200-day moving average of 1.34360, signaling a nascent death cross. Resistance is firmly established at the 1.33000 round number, with secondary resistance at the session high of 1.32750. Fibonacci analysis of the 60-day swing from 1.31822 to 1.36750 places the 23.6 percent retracement near 1.32980, adding confluence to the 1.33000 resistance zone. Support is located at the session low of 1.32510 and the recent swing low of 1.31822. The 14-day ATR of 0.00580 indicates that current price action is contained within standard volatility parameters.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish above 1.32690. USD/JPY
The pair is trading at 158.326, experiencing a slight retracement from its previous close of 158.520. It is currently oscillating around its 200-day moving average of 158.553, which acts as the primary pivot for long-term trend direction. A failure to maintain levels above this moving average could signal a deeper correction toward the 20-day moving average of 157.699 or the 50-day moving average of 157.709. The price action is currently compressed between the session low of 158.106 and the session high of 158.517. Looking at the 60-day swing high of 163.942 and the low of 152.897, the 50 percent retracement level sits at 158.420, suggesting the current market price is at a critical equilibrium point. A sustained move above 158.550 is required for bulls to reassert control and target the 160.000 psychological handle.
Bias: Bearish below 158.553. AUD/USD
The Australian dollar has shown significant relative strength, rising 0.65 percent to 0.70010. This move has pushed the pair back to the 0.70000 psychological level, though it remains below the 20-day moving average of 0.70130. The broader trend is still technically a downtrend, as the price is trading below the 50-day moving average at 0.70870 and the 200-day moving average at 0.70400. The session range of 0.69830 to 0.70060 shows bulls attempting to establish a base above the 0.69800 level. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 60-day high of 0.72390 to the low of 0.69052 place the 38.2 percent retracement at 0.70320, which will likely serve as a major resistance cluster alongside the 200-day moving average.
Bias: Bullish above 0.69830. DXY
The US Dollar Index is consolidating at 102.121, holding most of its recent gains. The index maintains a very strong bullish posture, trading well above its 20-day (101.517), 50-day (100.254), and 200-day (99.432) moving averages. This alignment of the moving average stack indicates a powerful uptrend. The 60-day swing high at 102.610 is the immediate target for bulls; a breakout above this level would signal a continuation toward the 52-week high. Support is found at the session low of 102.075, followed by the 20-day moving average. The RSI and momentum indicators remain elevated, suggesting the dollar continues to be favored on dips.
Bias: Bullish above 101.517.
Equity Indices and Futures
Nasdaq 100 (NQ)
Nasdaq 100 futures are trading at 30,770.25, showing minor weakness after failing to hold the 30,891.50 session high. The price is currently testing the 20-day moving average of 30,786.82. From a structural standpoint, NQ remains in a long-term uptrend, as evidenced by the 50-day moving average (30,009.17) being significantly higher than the 200-day moving average (27,830.45). However, short-term momentum has slowed near the 60-day swing high of 31,616.50. Fibonacci analysis of the move from the 60-day low (27,201.50) to the high (31,616.50) shows the 23.6 percent retracement level at 30,573.50, which serves as the primary downside target if the 20-day MA fails to hold. The ATR of 412.07 indicates high intraday volatility potential during the London and New York overlaps.
Bias: Bearish below 30,786.82. S&P 500 (ES)
ES futures are trading at 7,865.25, up 0.12 percent on the session and showing more resilience than the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The index is maintaining its position above all major moving averages, with the 20-day at 7,790.47 and the 50-day at 7,738.51. The price is currently within striking distance of its 60-day swing high of 7,897.50. Market structure remains firmly bullish with higher lows on the daily chart. Immediate support is found at the session low of 7,848.75. If the index breaks above 7,897.50, it enters blue-sky territory with 8,000.00 as the next major psychological target. The current ATR of 64.95 suggests relatively stable price discovery.
Bias: Bullish above 7,790.47. Dow (YM)
The Dow futures are trading at 52,034.00, attempting to recover after a period of relative underperformance compared to the S&P 500. The price is currently situated above the 20-day moving average of 51,796.55 but remains below the 50-day moving average of 52,701.16. This creates a technical squeeze between 51,800 and 52,700. The 200-day moving average at 50,564.50 remains the ultimate floor for the current bull cycle. Resistance is noted at the session high of 52,056.00 and the 50-day MA. A break above 52,700 would be required to shift the intermediate-term trend from neutral to bullish.
Bias: Neutral-Bullish above 51,796.55. DAX
The DAX is trading at 25,259.90, down slightly as European traders weigh the impact of higher US yields. The index is trading just below its 20-day moving average of 25,309.06 and significantly below its 50-day moving average of 25,766.16. The price action is currently finding support near the 200-day moving average of 24,866.39 and the 60-day swing low of 24,696.59. Resistance is pegged at the session high of 25,453.29. The technical structure suggests a range-bound market with a slight bearish tilt as long as it stays below the 25,309 level.
Bias: Bearish below 25,309.06. FTSE 100
The FTSE 100 is trading at 10,650.33, showing a modest decline in the pre-market. The index is trading above its 20-day moving average of 10,615.39 but below its 50-day moving average of 10,720.53. The price is currently trapped in a narrow range defined by the session high of 10,762.01 and session low of 10,641.98. The 200-day moving average at 10,479.72 provides a major support floor. Fibonacci retracements of the 60-day range (10,367.30 to 10,989.50) suggest the 50 percent level at 10,678.40 is the immediate resistance hurdle for the morning session.
Bias: Neutral below 10,678.40.
Commodities and Energy
Spot Gold (XAU/USD)
Spot gold is currently trading at 4,179.20, effectively unchanged on the session and continuing to struggle within a severe technical downtrend. The metal is trading well below its 20-day moving average of 4,241.35 and its 50-day moving average of 4,380.91. The 200-day moving average at 4,542.95 marks the definitive top of the current bearish channel. Support is identified at the session low of 4,167.00, with the 60-day swing low at 3,993.80 acting as the next major downside target. Fibonacci extensions from the 60-day high (4,755.00) suggest that momentum remains skewed to the downside as long as the price fails to reclaim the 4,240.00 area. High US Treasury yields continue to provide significant headwind for the non-yielding asset.
Bias: Bearish below 4,241.35. Spot Silver (XAG/USD)
Silver is trading at 59.215, exhibiting similar bearish characteristics to gold. The price is currently below its 20-day moving average of 61.937 and its 50-day moving average of 64.170. The 200-day moving average at 72.296 is far removed from current pricing, illustrating the intensity of the recent sell-off. The session range is tight, between 58.885 and 59.595. Immediate structural support exists at the 60-day swing low of 57.225. A breach of this level would likely trigger a test of the 52-week low at 45.845. Bulls need to reclaim the 60.000 psychological level to stabilize the technical picture.
Bias: Bearish below 61.937. Copper
Copper has decoupled from the precious metals complex, trading up 1.14 percent at 6.75400. The industrial metal is exhibiting a strong bullish trend, trading above its 20-day (6.62250), 50-day (6.58910), and 200-day (6.16450) moving averages. This bullish stack suggests sustained demand. The price is currently approaching its 60-day swing high of 6.83000. Support is found at the session low of 6.70400 and the 20-day MA. The rising slope of the 50-day MA indicates the medium-term trend is accelerating.
Bias: Bullish above 6.62250. WTI Crude
WTI crude is trading at 94.640, up 0.53 percent on the session. The oil market is in a confirmed uptrend, with price holding above the 20-day moving average of 93.058, which in turn is above the 50-day at 90.036 and the 200-day at 83.772. The session high of 95.410 is the immediate resistance, while a breakout would target the 60-day swing high of 106.750. The 14-day ATR of 3.803 suggests that large intraday swings are common in this environment. Support is anchored at the 20-day moving average.
Bias: Bullish above 93.058. Brent Crude
Brent crude mirrors the WTI strength, trading at 106.240. The price remains comfortably above the 20-day moving average of 103.346. The moving average configuration is strongly bullish (MA20 > MA50 > MA200). Resistance is located at the session high of 107.130, while support is found at the session low of 106.080 and the 20-day MA. The 60-day swing high at 110.190 is the logical target for the current leg of the rally.
Bias: Bullish above 103.346. Natural Gas
Natural gas is trading at 3.31800, up 1.07 percent. The commodity is testing the top of its 60-day swing range, with the high set at 3.33400. A break above this level would signal a major momentum breakout. The price is well above its 20-day moving average of 3.08540 and 50-day moving average of 2.92580. Interestingly, it is also trading above the 200-day moving average of 3.11340, confirming a shift into a long-term bullish phase. Support is at the session low of 3.31200.
Bias: Bullish above 3.11340.
Rates and Treasury Yields
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
The 10-year yield is trading at 5.21700, slightly lower than the previous close of 5.24000 but maintaining an aggressive upward trajectory. The yield is trading significantly above its 20-day moving average of 5.17160, 50-day moving average of 4.91480, and 200-day moving average of 4.48910. This is a classic bull market in yields (bear market in bonds). The 60-day swing high of 5.36400 is the key resistance level to watch. As long as yields remain above 5.00 percent, equity valuations, particularly in the tech sector, will likely remain under pressure.
Bias: Bullish above 5.17160.
Crypto and Digital Assets
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT)
Bitcoin is currently trading at 83,484.00, down 0.15 percent according to OKX data. The 24-hour session range of 82,956.30 to 84,166.30 shows a consolidation phase following recent volatility. The price is currently trading just below the previous close of 83,608.30. In the absence of longer-term moving average data, the immediate intraday focus remains on the session low of 82,956.30 as the primary support level. A breakdown below this could see a test of the 82,000 psychological handle. Resistance is firmly placed at the session high of 84,166.30. Volume for the last 24 hours stands at $0.37 billion on the OKX exchange.
Bias: Neutral-Bearish below 83,608.30. Ethereum (ETH/USDT)
Ethereum is trading at 2,503.87 on OKX, a decline of 1.05 percent. The asset is exhibiting weaker relative strength compared to Bitcoin. The session range has been 2,488.67 to 2,538.50. Market structure suggests a bearish bias as the price failed to hold the 2,530.33 previous close and is now hovering just above the session low. A break below 2,488.67 would open the door for a retest of lower support levels near 2,400.00. Immediate resistance is found at 2,538.50. 24-hour volume is recorded at $0.28 billion.
Bias: Bearish below 2,538.50. Solana (SOL/USDT)
Solana is trading at 107.33 on OKX, down 0.88 percent. The price is oscillating within a 24-hour range of 105.64 to 109.07. The failure to maintain the 108.28 previous close level indicates short-term selling pressure. Support is identified at the session low of 105.64, which bulls must defend to prevent a broader slide toward the 100.00 round number. Resistance is at the session high of 109.07. Trading volume remains light at $0.05 billion.
Bias: Bearish below 108.28.
Technical Cross-Asset Summary
Market participants should monitor the 5.217 percent level on the US 10-year yield and the 102.121 level on the DXY for signs of further dollar strength, which could catalyze a breakdown in EUR/USD below its 1.11910 pivot. The S&P 500 futures test of 7,897 will be the defining theme for equity risk sentiment; a failure to clear this resistance on the London open could trigger a rotation into defensive commodities or a deeper correction in Nasdaq futures toward 30,573.
