Markets finished up the week as usual looking for direction and the next market moving catalyst, and next week there is just that with PPV pay per view high impact news catalyst US CPI consumer price index inflation data followed by Producer Price Index (PPI), after that there wont be much room for data until the next FOMC meeting and then mega cap tech earnings will be just around the corner . After Fridays market close these are the technical levels to check out before futures markets open tomorrow...
Forex and Currency Flows
DXY The US Dollar Index maintains its aggressive bullish posture at 102.231, up 0.09 percent in the current session. Technical structure remains dominated by a robust uptrend, with the price currently trading significantly above its MA20 of 101.144 and MA50 of 100.110. This configuration suggests sustained momentum as the index approaches the upper bound of its 60-day swing range, which tops out at 102.540. The current session range of 101.920 to 102.335 indicates a consolidation near the local highs, with the previous close of 102.140 now serving as immediate dynamic support. Given an ATR14 of 0.506, the index has room to challenge the 52-week high of 102.540 within today's session if London flows favor the greenback. A failure to hold the MA20 would be the first sign of a trend shift, but the index remains firmly in a buy-on-dips regime as it tests the resistance of its recent peak. Bias: Bullish above 101.920
EUR/USD EUR/USD continues to trade under heavy technical pressure, currently marked at 1.12060, a 0.06 percent decline from the previous close of 1.12130. The pair is situated well below its MA20 of 1.13600 and its MA200 of 1.15960, signaling a deep bearish phase and a potential long-term trend reversal. The session low of 1.11920 is a critical level to watch, as it sits dangerously close to the 52-week low of 1.11620. If the 1.11623 level from the 60-day swing low is breached, there is little structural support to prevent a test of historical psychological zones. The 14-day ATR of 0.00630 suggests that session volatility is compressed, but any expansion here is likely to favor the downside given the slope of the moving averages. Resistance is firmly established at the session high of 1.12460, followed by the MA20 overhead. Bias: Bearish below 1.12460
GBP/USD Cable is trading with a marginal gain of 0.03 percent at 1.32330, showing slight relative strength compared to the Euro but remaining in a broader downtrend. The price is currently trapped below the MA20 of 1.32930 and the MA50 of 1.34400, while the MA200 at 1.34390 remains a distant target for bulls. The session range of 1.32080 to 1.32500 indicates a tight consolidation phase. A break below the 60-day swing low of 1.31822 would likely accelerate selling toward the 52-week low of 1.30120. With an ATR14 of 0.00640, the pair requires a significant catalyst to reclaim the MA20. The prior close of 1.32291 is currently acting as a pivot for intraday direction, and the lack of momentum suggests a range-bound open for the London session unless the dollar weakens. Bias: Bearish below 1.32500
USD/JPY The yen remains weak with USD/JPY rising 0.12 percent to 158.246. The pair is trading above its MA20 of 157.341 and its MA50 of 157.678, highlighting a short-term bullish trend that is now testing the MA200 at 158.536. This 200-day average represents a critical inflection point; a sustained break above it could clear the path toward the 60-day swing high of 163.979. The session range is 157.752 to 158.431, showing a steady climb toward resistance. Support is found at the previous close of 158.063 and the MA50 just below it. The ATR14 of 0.953 implies that a move to 159.00 is well within the daily volatility parameters if the London open sees a continuation of the carry trade or dollar demand. Bias: Bullish above 157.678
AUD/USD The Australian dollar is the outlier in the FX space, gaining 0.42 percent to 0.69880. This move represents a sharp recovery from the 60-day swing low of 0.69052, although the pair remains below its MA20 of 0.70280 and MA50 of 0.70880. The 200-day moving average at 0.70370 is the primary objective for the current rally, and a failure to clear this level would confirm the current move as a mere relief rally in a bear market. The session high and low are currently identical at 0.69880, indicating a gap up or a very thin early session that lacks local range definition. The 52-week low of 0.64220 remains a distant structural anchor, while the ATR14 of 0.00410 suggests the current move is already approaching its daily limit unless copper’s strength provides a secondary tailwind. Bias: Bullish above 0.69590
Equity Indices and Futures
Nasdaq 100 (NQ) NQ futures are trading at 31108.75, up 0.45 percent, maintaining a highly bullish posture. The index is trading above its MA20 of 30517.36 and its MA50 of 29903.16, with the MA200 at 27755.93 far below current price action. This indicates a very strong structural uptrend. The session range of 30953.00 to 31266.50 shows bulls are attempting to test the 60-day swing high of 31616.50. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 60-day swing low of 27201.50 suggest that any pullbacks to the 30000 level would be seen as healthy corrections within an ongoing bull market. The ATR14 of 440.52 points to high volatility, yet the price remains comfortably above its previous close of 30969.50. Momentum oscillators likely remain in overbought territory, but the trend shows no sign of exhaustion as it nears its all-time highs. Bias: Bullish above 30953.00
S&P 500 (ES) ES futures have risen 0.56 percent to 7859.75, trading near the top of the session range of 7817.00 to 7870.50. The index is holding above the MA20 of 7750.06 and the MA50 of 7725.19, reflecting a synchronized rally with the Nasdaq. Support is anchored at the previous close of 7816.25, while the primary target for bulls is the 60-day swing high of 7897.50. Market structure is characterized by higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart. Given the ATR14 of 72.30, a breakout above 7897.50 could occur today if the London open provides sufficient volume. The 200-day moving average at 7280.22 confirms the long-term bullish trend is intact, with the price currently trading at a significant premium to its historical average. Bias: Bullish above 7817.00
Dow (YM) YM futures are leading the US indices this morning with an 0.84 percent gain to 51926.00. The price has reclaimed the MA20 at 51795.70 but remains below the MA50 of 52784.32, suggesting a mixed trend profile compared to its tech-heavy peers. The 60-day swing range of 50859.00 to 54884.00 shows that the Dow has more ground to cover to return to its previous peaks. Immediate resistance lies at the session high of 52032.00, with support at the session low of 51475.00. The MA200 at 50518.06 provides a major floor for the long-term trend. The recovery in the Dow suggests a rotation into value or industrial names, potentially driven by the stability in energy prices. Bias: Bullish above 51475.00
DAX The DAX is exhibiting strong momentum, up 1.13 percent to 25087.27, although the technical backdrop is more complex than in US markets. The price is currently trading above the MA200 of 24857.90 but remains trapped under the MA20 of 25324.33 and the MA50 of 25799.48. This suggests that while the long-term trend is positive, the medium-term structure is still corrective. The session range of 24955.71 to 25164.74 places the index in a battle to hold the 25000 psychological level. A failure to reclaim the MA20 would suggest this move is a dead-cat bounce following the decline from the 60-day swing high of 26618.74. ATR14 is 275.63, indicating significant daily movement as the index oscillates near its long-term average. Bias: Bearish below 25324.33
FTSE 100 The FTSE 100 is trading at 10552.05, up 1.06 percent, mirroring the recovery seen in European and US markets. It has moved above its MA200 of 10471.88 but remains slightly below the MA20 of 10617.85 and MA50 of 10728.91. This indicates a market trying to establish a floor after a period of weakness. The 60-day swing low of 10367.30 served as a successful support level, and the current session range of 10441.50 to 10577.33 shows bulls are in control this morning. The index's heavy weighting in commodities is likely providing support, given the gains in gold and oil. The 10617 level (MA20) is the immediate hurdle for a change in market structure. Bias: Bullish above 10441.50
Commodities and Energy
Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Gold has seen a massive surge of 1.43 percent to 4216.30, rebounding sharply from its previous close of 4157.00. Despite this bounce, the metal remains in a technical downtrend, trading below its MA20 of 4267.60, MA50 of 4376.97, and MA200 of 4548.02. The session range is 4156.10 to 4233.70, showing significant intraday buying pressure. Fibonacci retracement off the 60-day swing high of 4755 and low of 3963 suggests that the 50 percent level at 4359 is a major resistance zone that would need to be cleared to signal a trend reversal. The 4216 price level is currently below the 61.8 percent retracement of that move. ATR14 is high at 81.38, reflecting the volatile nature of the current rebound. Traders should watch the 4267.60 level (MA20) as the primary resistance for the London session. Bias: Bullish above 4156.10
Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Silver is outperforming the complex with a 3.36 percent gain to 61.048. Like gold, silver is trading below all its major moving averages, including the MA20 at 62.563 and the MA200 at 72.493. The session high of 61.460 represents the first major test for this recovery. The 60-day swing low of 55.015 provided the base for this move, and the current bounce is likely fueled by short-covering. The 50 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 60-day move (71.16 to 55.015) sits at 63.08, which aligns closely with the MA20. Until silver can reclaim the 63.00 level, the overall technical structure remains bearish. Bias: Bullish above 59.450
Copper Copper is trading at 6.69200, up 2.65 percent, and is showing one of the strongest technical profiles in the commodity sector. It is trading above its MA20 of 6.57250 and MA50 of 6.57790, which are currently forming a "golden cross" pattern. The MA200 at 6.14760 is trending up and sits well below the current price. The session range of 6.51150 to 6.72000 shows that the metal is approaching its 60-day swing high of 6.83000. Copper's ability to maintain its gains despite a strong dollar suggests significant industrial demand or supply constraints. A break above 6.83000 would signal a continuation of the 52-week bull run toward new highs. Bias: Bullish above 6.51150
WTI Crude WTI is trading at 91.850, a gain of 0.39 percent. It is currently positioned between its MA20 of 94.414 and its MA50 of 89.201. This suggests a consolidation phase within a broad bullish trend, as the MA200 at 83.227 remains firmly supportive. The session range is 90.010 to 92.170, and the previous close of 91.490 is acting as a pivot point. The 60-day swing high of 106.750 remains the long-term target, while the 60-day swing low of 74.240 provides the ultimate structural floor. ATR14 of 4.219 suggests that WTI could easily test 95.00 or drop to 87.00 in a single session. Bias: Bullish above 90.010
Brent Crude Brent is up 0.42 percent at 104.720, trading above its MA20 (103.430), MA50 (96.035), and MA200 (88.783). This bullish alignment of moving averages indicates a strong trend across multiple timeframes. The session range is 102.390 to 105.070, with the price currently testing the upper end of that range. Resistance is found at the 60-day swing high of 110.190, while support is anchored by the MA20. With an ATR14 of 4.496, Brent is showing consistent volatility and remains in a buy-the-dip configuration as it holds above its short-term averages. Bias: Bullish above 103.430
Natural Gas Natural gas is trading at 3.22000, up 1.64 percent. The price is above all its moving averages: MA20 (3.03230), MA50 (2.89460), and MA200 (3.12970). This breakout above the MA200 is a significant technical event, shifting the long-term bias to bullish. The session high of 3.24700 is nearing the 60-day swing high of 3.31700. If the price can sustain its position above 3.12970, it confirms a trend shift from the 52-week low of 2.48300. ATR14 is 0.14440, suggesting that a test of the swing high could occur during the London or New York sessions. Bias: Bullish above 3.12970
Rates and Treasury Yields
US 10-year Treasury yield The 10-year yield is trading at 5.24400, up 0.25 percent from its previous close of 5.23100. The yield is significantly above its MA20 of 5.14660, MA50 of 4.89430, and MA200 of 4.47830, indicating a powerful and accelerating uptrend in rates. The yield is currently trading in the upper portion of its 60-day swing range (4.51100 to 5.36400). This rising rate environment is providing the primary support for the DXY while acting as a headwind for equities. There is no session low recorded other than zero, suggesting a gap open at 5.24. If the yield moves toward the 5.36400 swing high, expect further pressure on the EUR/USD and yen. Bias: Bullish above 5.14660
Crypto and Digital Assets
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) Bitcoin is trading at 82806.60, up 0.50 percent, according to OKX data. The 24-hour range of 82277.20 to 83530.10 shows a period of consolidation after reaching historical highs. While MA and RSI data are not provided in this block, the price relative to the previous close of 82395.30 indicates a positive momentum carryover. Immediate resistance is the 24-hour high at 83530.10, while the 82277.20 session low serves as the first level of support. Volume is recorded at $0.30bn on OKX, indicating steady participation. The total market capitalization and Bitcoin dominance figures are not currently supplied, but the price action suggests Bitcoin remains the primary driver of sentiment in the digital asset space. Bias: Bullish above 82277.20
Ethereum (ETH/USDT) Ethereum is trading at 2497.56, a 0.18 percent increase, as per OKX data. The session range is 2474.40 to 2520.75, showing Ethereum is struggling to reclaim the 2500 psychological level. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's 24-hour volume of $0.16bn suggests lower relative interest. The previous close of 2493.06 is currently being tested as a pivot. A break above 2520.75 is needed to confirm a short-term bullish bias, while a drop below the session low of 2474.40 could lead to a test of deeper support levels. Bias: Bullish above 2493.06
Solana (SOL/USDT) Solana is trading slightly lower by 0.27 percent at 110.04, based on OKX data. The 24-hour range of 108.45 to 112.06 shows a slight bearish lean compared to the broader crypto market. The previous close was 110.34, making the current price a marginal retreat. Solana's 24-hour volume is $0.05bn. The price is hovering around the 110.00 level, which has become a focal point for liquidity. A failure to hold 108.45 could see a move toward the lower range, while a break of 112.06 would be required to shift the intraday bias to bullish. Bias: Bearish below 110.34
Watch the 102.54 resistance on the DXY; a breakout there into the London open will likely force EUR/USD below the 1.1200 support and challenge the 1.1162 52-week low. Simultaneously, monitor gold's ability to hold the 4,200 level, as any rejection here would confirm the current 1.43 percent bounce as a short-covering move rather than a structural reversal.
